The large balance rates

Given the crisis, firms give little information about their profit planning. For analysts this means that you have even expected. This has amazing results.
The German corporations hardly dare even to look towards the future. According to FTD searches give only five of the 30 DAX companies a specific profit forecast for the current year. For analysts, this means they can in their earnings estimates are no longer simply on the projections of the managers are based.

The outlook is uncertain especially for companies whose success with the economy fluctuates, such as car-makers, financial service providers and brands. Not a single Dax companies in these sectors has a specific outlook for 2009 published.

“If the company does not provide profit forecasts, the analyst breaks for an anchor away,” says Lutz Johanning from the business school WHU in Vallendar. The financial expert expected that the predictions of corporate observers in the next few months are far apart.

The development is already starting for the Munich automobile manufacturer BMW, the estimates of analysts by a pre-tax profit of 2.7 billion to a loss of 1.9 billion euros in the current year. At Commerzbank, the forecasts of analysts between a pre-tax loss of 4.9 billion euros and 2.7 billion profit.

The directors prepare their inability to perfectly forecast concern. One survey by the journal “CFO Europe” that prepares the profit forecast the financial leaders of European firms as major problems such as no other task. “Companies come to the limits of planning and budgeting,” observed Guido Hoymann, analyst at Metzler Bank. “Everything seems possible.” If ‘Allianz chief Michael Diekmann, the sounds so: “Reliable statements about income in 2009 in this environment are not possible.” Almost identical Beiersdorf CEO Thomas-Bernd Quaas’ forecasts are safe in the current economic environment is not possible. ”

Intern is expected to diligently

Internally, the company should still play through various scenarios, says Hoymann. “If the company had no idea where it goes, then it would be fatal. Finally, they must have investments and costs to decide.”

The fact that many corporations their internal forecasts do not publish reasons Johanning scientists with a concern for its credibility: “If we as a company with the forecast total danebenliegt, one loses for the future reputation.” The danger in the current year was great. “If even macroeconomic forecasts strong weekly basis need to be adjusted, are industry-and company-specific forecasts almost impossible.”

When analysts encounter the silence of the Dax-Chefs therefore understanding. “If their own insecurity correctly to pass, then this is currently just the picture. You should not accurate to suggest that does not exist,” says strategist Tammo Greetfeld shares of Unicredit. Metzler analyst Hoyman together briefly summarizes it: “The cautious forecast is evidence of insight into the realities.”

For the work of the analysts could have serious consequences. Without specifications of corporations, they might at a future opinion leaders from within our own ranks are based. A “dangerous situation,” warns financial Johanning researchers’ earnings forecasts and stock prices in this case based on the opinions of a very few, not necessarily well-informed market participants. ” The result: The Silence of the company create more uncertainty.

Johanning expects to doubt the analysts: “Many investors are asking: If the insider no longer dare forecast, then how is an outsider to judge the prospects?” Hoymann defended their own guild: “If you from outside a company from scratch, you can assess the results more sober than the top group, with all its constraints.” Sober – and with more flexibility in the results, as the cases of BMW and Commerzbank show.

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